磐石金融：No 670 - Aging contango, childbirth backwardation

　　磐石金融有限公司（ BANDS Financial Limited ）在香港注册成立，是一家持有香港证监会（SFC）2号牌照的期货经纪公司，业务涉及中国以外全球大部分活跃期货及期权市场。

　　Following the fall in the Dow overnight which delivered its biggest loss since late February, This morning‘s overnight comment from bank analysis is decidedly lukewarm, led in my case by Macquarie’s headline “US Fiscal Past the Peak – fading impulse ahead.” These eight words succinctly summarising the following 15-page document. Despite the fall in equities which were soft all day, copper managed to ascend to a new closing high and is higher again this morning, which is not exactly a good thing for anyone except the mining companies and their fellow travellers. However, my attention was drawn to the Baltic Exchange and its dry goods shipping index which lifted yesterday to its highest level since June 2010 and up 700% since its April 2020 low.In the US tonight we have the Core Inflation numbers which are already expected to be 3.6% (last 2.6%) which would be the highest observation for almost a decade. Perhaps the expectation of an impending inflation pulse is behind yesterday‘s equity market fall as investors factor in potential rising yields. In the reporting of Fed Governor Lael Brainard speech last night in prepared remarks she maintained “The outlook is bright, but risks remain, and we are far from our goals.” She went on to say that for a variety of reasons any rise in prices associated with reopening the economy will be “largely transitory.” The Fed of course is trumpeting “it’s only temporary” party line, but from the tone of my incoming bank research, increasingly the Fed‘s supporters are drifting away.And that is the problem. As long-term readers know I’m 100 years old and if you look back in your charts on inflation you will find the late 70‘s and early 80’s inflation at 15%. I was there for that, and I can assure you inflation is not an aeroplane that you can control by a light touch on the joystick, it is an oil tanker that once in motion cannot be turned or slowed down.Here in China, the media is consuming the release of yesterdays census data. Printing a population of 1.412bn, the population has risen just 72 million since 2010. China delivered only 12m babies in 2020, down from 14.7m in 2019 a negative trend that is likely to continue following the now-abandoned one-child policy that fewer women are of childbearing age. According to the Evergrande Research Institute, the number of Chinese women aged between 20 and 35 reached a peak of 190 million in 1997. That total had dropped to about 170 million in 2017, and it is expected to fall to 110 million by 2030 a fall of 42%. At the other end of the spectrum, the volume of older Chinese continues to increase, the percentage of Chinese aged 60 and above has risen to 18.7% from 13.3% of the population in 2010. Undoubtedly the 2020 census highlights a turning point for Chinese demographics.Have a good day

　　Joh